Goodbye Miracle Eight

Goodbye Miracle Eight is the 10th Pok Rafeah Chair Public Lecture, Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia delivered on 24 November 2015. Manufacturing has become increasingly competitive worldwide and for developing countries, the options for manufacturing exported growth and industrial upgrading have significantly narrowed. Hence the era of the ‘Miracle Eight’—which grouped middle-tier Southeast Asian countries with Northeast Asian tiger economies has passed. Why were the opportunities for industrial development that existed in Southeast Asia not utilized effectively?

The central question is the nature of political institutions in the region. Turning to wider dynamics, developments in Southeast Asia are also influenced by changing geoeconomic constellations. Shifting economic complementarities now increasingly involve China-centric value networks in East Asia. China’s lead in Asia is of a different character than Japan’s lead in the past. The next section asks whether ASEAN is becoming a manufacturing workshop of the world and what the implications are of this development. In closing, the lecture looks at forward options for middle-tier Southeast Asian economies.